On the Changing Correlation Between Fertility and Female Employment over Space and Time

Various authors find that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate turned from a negative value before the 1980s to a positive value thereafter. Based on pooled cross-sectional data, Kögel (2002) shows that (a) unmeasured country-specific factors and (b) country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association accounts for the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation coefficient. Our paper aims to identify those variables that may explain country heterogeneity in the negative association between fertility and female labor force participation. The selection of variables is based on existing macro demographic theories. We apply aggregate descriptive representations of the time series and cross-country evolution of fertility, female employment and a set of labor market, educational and demographic variables and indicators of social policy. ∗We would like to thank Anne Gauthier for providing data series on wages and indicators for social policies and Dorothea Rieck for assistance with all the data. The view expressed in this paper are the authors’ own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Institute for Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. For language editing, we would like to thank Jenae Tharaldson and Susann Backer. †Institute for Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria. Email: [email protected]. ‡Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Email: [email protected]